European Tour Fantasy Golf Predictions – BMW SA Open Championship

Fantasy Golf Picks & Predictions for the 2018 BMW SA Open Championship

2018 BMW SA Open European Tour Fantasy Preview

This week in golf marks the return of the European Tour for the first time in 2018, and what a way to kick things off!

Okay, so many of Europe and Asia’s leading names are off contesting the EurAsia Cup in Kuala Lumpur, but the BMW SA Open has a rather more African feel to it anyway.

Ask most Saffies and they will tell you the same thing: outside of the majors, this is the event that all South Africans want to win. It is ‘their’ major, by all accounts, and that is highlighted by a high quality local field that includes the likes of Branden Grace, Charl Schwartzel, Dylan Frittelli and many more.

Branden Grace of South Africa poses with the trophy after his victory…

Branden Grace of South Africa poses with the trophy after his victory during the final round of the 2017 Nedbank Golf Challenge at Gary Player CC on November 12, 2017 in Sun City, South Africa. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

But those who like to follow trends will note something very interesting. Between 2002-2012 the event was hosted by a variety of different venues, with ten of the twelve winners in that time hailing from South Africa.

In 2013 the tournament moved full time to Glendower Golf Club, and since then there has been a complete reversal with a Dane (Morten Orum Madsen) and two Englishmen (Andy Sullivan and Graeme Storm) joining Brandon Stone in the winner’s enclosure.

Typically, we see events on South African soil dominated by their national stars, but here perhaps we can open our minds a bit to other possibilities when drafting our roster.

Our hosts this week are the Glendower Golf Club in Edenvale, which is a million miles from Johannesburg. This is a long old stretch at 7,564 yards for its Par 72, and with plenty of rain around in the build-up the soft fairways could play even longer – that said, we are at an altitude of some 5,500 feet above above sea level.

This is a classic South African track, to some extent, although the tree-lined fairways do give the stretch a sort of vintage British parkland feel – perhaps that’s why Storm and Sullivan have been able to get over the line. The fairways are Kikuyu and the greens Bentgrass.

We expect long and straight hitting to prosper here, with more than 60 bunkers on site and water in play on eleven holes. With thick rough and dense trees adding to the difficulty, this is more than just a bomber’s paradise however.

With all of the above in mind, who makes the cut for our draft this week?

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This Week’s BMW SA Open European Tour Fantasy Picks & Predictions

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This Week’s BMW SA Open Fantasy Picks

Branden Grace – $11,800 – Grace is the tournament jolly with the salary-makers and sportsbooks alike, and while usually we’re happy enough to ignore the front-runner his claims are substantial.

You may recall the 29-year-old posting the lowest round in British Open history back in the summer, and that was just a friendly reminder of how talented this powerhouse is.

But more impressive to us is this remarkable stat: Grace has won six of the last thirty events he has entered on South African soil. That is an unbelievable hit rate of 20%, and implies that he has a one in five chance of winning this tournament, too.

That’s before we introduce Grace’s excellent course form at Glendower of 4-15-8, and the fact that he won on his penultimate start at the Nedbank Challenge; unsurprisingly on home soil.

So despite his high salary demands, we can see that Grace is well deserving of the accolade. He is, comprehensively, the most likely man to win the BMW SA Open this week.

Matthieu Pavon – $9,500 – The European Tour has long been about upcoming talents breaking through – as evidenced by the number of ‘new names’ that tend to compete on leaderboards week in, week out.

Somebody who has been going quietly under the radar for a while is the Frenchman, Matthieu Pavon, and his break through could come this week at a track where Europeans have thrived.

T5 in his last start at the Mauritius Open, Pavon had banked a trio of top-20s prior to that too at the DP World Tour Championship, the Nedbank Challenge and the Turkish Airlines Open – all Rolex Cup events with pressure on.

Top-10s at the Scottish Open, Nordea Masters and Open de Portugal also caught the eye, and this young talent looks like the kind of guy who is ready to break into the winner’s circle.

Our final piece of intuition comes in the correlation between Glendower and Leopard Creek, the host of the Alfred Dunhill Championship. Brandon Stone has won both, Graeme Storm has won a the former and finished T4 at the latter, while Charl Schwartzel has won at the latter and blown his chances when in contention twice at the former.

Pavon finished T25 at Leopard Creek last year, and while that is hardly earth-shattering his upward curve of improvement since then suggests it could be relevant.

Chris Wood – $8,400 – Sometimes you have to go with your intuition when it comes to drafting your line-up after a lengthy lay-off, and place your faith in those who may have recaptured their form over the festive period as they work on their game ‘behind closed doors.’

To us, Chris Wood seems like one of those performers for whom form is temporary, class is permanent. The Englishman has won at a tree-lined layout before (the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth), and displayed form in South Africa with top-10s at both the Tshwane Open and Nedbank Challenge.

His form in 2017 was not what we’ve come to expect from the two-time European Tour winner, but he was hampered by injuries and still found time to post a pair of top-fives.

Fully fit, Wood is more than a match for anyone in this field, and as such his price is somewhat undervalued here.

Graeme Storm – $7,400 – It takes a monumental effort to successfully retain a title – the history books teach us that, but a decent run here from Graeme Storm is certainly not out of the question.

He showed tremendous mettle to beat Rory McIlroy in a playoff here 12 months ago in his first win in about a decade. That adds further weight to the argument that he simply loves playing his golf in South Africa.

A T4 finish in the Alfred Dunhill was duly followed by victory at Glendower, and towards the tail-end of 2017 he banked yet another top-10 finish on South African soil at the Nedbank Challenge.

A T6 finish at the tree-lined Wentworth last season only adds fuel to the fire.

Mikko Korhonen – $7,100 – Like Storm, Mikko Korhonen tends to save his very best golf for South African climes.

He’s finished inside the top-30 in six of his last seven trips to the country, with the two notables being the T7 on debut here 12 months ago and the T13 in last month’s Joburg Open. He banked another pair of top-10s in South Africa in 2017 alone!

The Finn is yet to enter the winner’s enclosure on the European Tour, but he twice finished second in 2017 and you wonder if this year could be Korhonen’s time to finally take care of business.

Ulrich van den Bergh – $6,800 – This is one of those ‘cross your fingers and hope for the best’ style picks, but who knows it might just come off.

Ulrich van den Bergh is a member at Glendower, and while it is easy to get carried away by membership status the 42-year-old has actually made it pay by winning the Sunshine Tour’s BMG Classic on home soil back in 2013.

He’s made the cut in three of his last five European Tour starts, posted eight top-20 finishes on the Sunshine Tour in 2017 and, incredibly, he has finished first or second a whopping 26 times in South Africa (seven wins).

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