Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – 2018 Sony Open in Hawaii
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2018 Sony Open in Hawaii
2018 Sony Open in Hawaii Tournament of Champions Fantasy Preview
The 2017 edition of the Tournament of Champions would turn out be highly prophetic of the golfing year ahead: the winner, Justin Thomas, going on to claim his first major and the FedExCup in a stellar year for the young phenom.
If the 2018 TOC is to prove equally prescient, then the world of golf had better watch out: Dustin Johnson means business.
The world number one claimed the seventeenth title of his career at Kapalua, and by some eight shots too from nearest challenger Jon Rahm. If that is a sign of things to come, then DJ is going to take some stopping this year.
The good news for the assembled field for the second leg of the Hawaiian swing is that Johnson is treating himself to a well-earned week off, leaving the rest to battle it out for honors in the stunning region of Honolulu.
The Sony Open is another low-scoring assignment in beautiful surroundings, but with a full-sized field to pick from DFS golf finally gets into its swing in 2018.
Justin Thomas of the United States poses with the winner’s trophy for…
Justin Thomas of the United States poses with the winner’s trophy for the Sony Open in Hawaii on Jan. 15 at Waialae Country Club in Honolulu. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
Last Week’s Fantasy Results from the Sentry Tournament of Champions
Obviously DJ was the ideal pick last week with his dominant win (and lots of birdies), but you can’t discount the five Top 11 picks we ended up with, including Brian Harman (our Top Sleeper pick who finished 3rd) and our Top Pick Jordan Spieth finishing the week with 17 birdies and one eagle.
Other finishers for us included Pat Perez, a solid ‘one-and-done’ pick this week (T4) and Marc Leishman (T7).
Dustin Johnson of United States celerbates after winning the Sentry…
Dustin Johnson of United States celerbates after winning the Sentry Tournament of Champions at Plantation Course at Kapalua Golf Club on January 7, 2018 in Lahaina, Hawaii. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
2018 Sentry Tournament of Champions Field
As you would expect, the best of the field are those who are hanging around in Hawaii after the TOC last week: Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, Marc Leishman and Xander Schauffele clearly all enjoying life on the island.
Likewise, Brian Harman, Si-Woo Kim and Daniel Berger will be looking to cash in on decent showings at Kapalua, while repping the non-TOC crew in Honolulu are Tony Finau, Zach Johnson and Webb Simpson, among many others.
There is a host of former Sony Open champions in the field too, from Russell Henley and Jimmy Walker to Fabian Gomez and Ryan Palmer.
A trio of talented Japanese players – Yusaku Miyazato, Satoshi Kodaira and Shugo Imahira – have taken the opportunity to try their luck in America after missing out on selection for the EurAsia Cup this week.
Jordan Spieth of the United States plays a shot on the fourth hole…
Jordan Spieth of the United States plays a shot on the fourth hole during the third round of the Sentry Tournament of Champions at Plantation Course at Kapalua Golf Club on January 6, 2018 in… Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
This Week’s Course Preview
While they are both on the idyllic island of Hawaii, Kapalua and this week’s host venue, Waialae, could scarcely be any different.
Okay, so they are both framed by Bermuda greens, but the actual landscape of the tracks are polar opposite.
While Kapalua features fairways as wide as football fields, Waialae is a much more considered test of ball striking. Many of the holes are tree-lined, meaning that placement off the tee is paramount, and the small Bermuda greens here are typically ‘baked’ by the hot sun in these parts to make them hard to hold.
That said, Waialae is not unplayable by any means. Justin Thomas, in a show of near perfect golf, won at a princely -27 last year, and while that was a course record there are still plenty of other feats of low scoring shown by former champions Russell Henley (-24), Jimmy Walker (-23) and Fabian Gomez (-20).
The course’s best defense is typically the wind; an unpredictable force in island golf at the best of times but particularly so in Hawaii. Surprisingly, the forecast is quite good on that front, so we can expect this event to devolve into something of a birdie fest.
And, tellingly for DFS gamers, this is a short Par 70 stretch (7,044 yards), so with just a pair of Par 5s to attack going low on the standard Par 4s is essential: JT played them in -16 just 12 months ago.
Justin Thomas of the United States plays a shot from a bunker on the…
Justin Thomas of the United States plays a shot from a bunker on the sixth hole during the final round of the Sony Open In Hawaii at Waialae Country Club on January 15, 2017 in Honolulu, Hawaii. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
Weather Forecast for Honolulu, Hawaii
Unusually for this tournament, we’re not expecting high winds to derail the players at Waialae.
The forecasts are subject to change, of course, but the early view suggests that highs of 8 mph (Thursday), 6 mph (Friday), 3 mph (Saturday) and 7 mph (Sunday) are expected. Now, even accounting for those being higher at local level, these are the breezes we have come to know and expect in this part of the world.
What we do expect is plenty of sunshine, and we can expect some glorious bouts of sunny weather in-between the clouds with temperatures ranging from 78-82 degrees.
Assuming nothing changes, these are perfect conditions for top-notch golf.
Last Year’s Results from the Sony Open in Hawaii
It was windier here last year but Justin Thomas certainly didn’t let that affect him.
The young gun played near flawless golf to claim his then fourth PGA TOUR title; hot on the tails of his third having captured the Tournament of Champions crown a week prior.
The confidence from Kapalua seemed to flow right through to Waialae, with Thomas joining the 59 club on the Thursday in a sublime show of ball striking. He followed up with 64-65-64 to win by seven from Justin Rose.
Not to be outdone, Kevin Kisner – who would go on to finish T4 – carded a round of 60 on Saturday to fall agonizingly short of joining the exclusive club, while excellent rounds of 61 from Zach Johnson (T6) and Chez Reavie (T8) show that if you keep your ball in play then Waialae is there for the taking.
A top five containing Thomas, Rose, Jordan Spieth and Kisner confirms what we already knew: the agreeable set-up at Waialae allows the best in the business to flourish.
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Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Sentry Tournament of Champions this Week
Here we go then: the first full field event of 2018. That gives us a greater scope when drafting our line-up, and our comprehensive research gives us the edge over our rivals! So which are the picks of the DFS week:
- PGA $90k Birdie: The key to this $3 contest is that it is a 20 entry max affair: giving well-researched gamers the edge. Fewer line-ups means less volatility….and the $5k top prize would be a nice bonus too!
- PGA $200k Dogleg: We may as well start 2018 as we mean to go on: this $33 entry contest boasts a whopping jackpot of $20k, with the top 25 players winning $500 at the very least.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Sony Open in Hawaii
It is clear for all to see that Waialae rewards quality ball striking, and keeping your ball in play on these tree-lined fairways is key.
Fabian Gomez isn’t somebody that we would describe as a particularly likely winner of any event – indeed, he won at sportsbook odds of 500/1 here in 2016. What he does do well is hit straight lines, albeit in short measure, and that’s a trait he shares with former Sony Open champions Zach Johnson, KJ Choi and Johnson Wagner.
We didn’t learn much more from Justin Thomas’ winning effort for the simple reason that he was outstanding in all aspects of his game. This is a guy who ranked first for Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, second for SG: Putting, second for SG: Off the Tee and fifth for SG: Approach. You can’t really wish for a better tournament than that.
Helpfully, there were plenty of other clues to be learnt from the 2017 edition, and the first is that flawless ball striking is key. In the SG: Tee to Green metric, the top five read Thomas, Spieth, Rose, Kisner and Reavie; who would finish 1st, 3rd, 2nd, T4 and T8 in the event respectively. The Sony Open is not one of those tournaments where you can scramble and putt your way to glory; you need to drive well and hit GIR at all costs.
It’s a unique course in that there are only two Par 5s to attack but the Par 4s offer up plenty of scoring opportunities. Find the fairway on these shorter holes and you stand every chance of breaking par – as long as your short irons are dialed in, of course.
Have a look at last year’s top 10 when you get a chance, because it is illuminating. The big money places were shared by major winners (Spieth, Zach Johnson, Thomas), former PGA TOUR winners (Kisner, Jim Herman) and classy, straight hitters (Gary Woodland, Chez Reavie, Charles Howell III). The only exception to the rule was Jamie Lovemark, although you sense that he will break his title duck sooner or later.
So the formula for success as far as the Sony Open is concerned is simple: draft class acts and quality ball strikers to your roster.
As ever, we have one eye on correlating courses, and there seems to be at least three to consider. The similarities between Waialae and Harbour Town, plus Mayakoba, are obvious for all to see, while contextually at least Colonial offers relevant crossover: its short, features tree-lined fairways and can get rather windy in Texas as we know.
Be sure to utilize both our Key Fantasy Stats and GPFP Algorithm premium tools to help you narrow down your picks.
In case your new to Golficity, if your stuck between two players, you can let other stats help you decide. For example, if you’re looking for a mid-tier salary player with distance off the tee (Driving Distance/DD) and solid with attacking greens (GIR%), you may be torn between Howell and Grillo. So be sure to look to other key factors that may help you decide; hence giving you an edge over the rest.
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Sony Open in Hawaii
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Sony Open in Hawaii
*Please note that some players may not have registered enough events this early into the 2017-2018 season to have an accurate GPFP.
Top Tier Pick #1:
Jordan Spieth (Odds: 5/1, FPPG: 96.00, GPFP: 81.60 Salary: $12,000)
Yep, were going in with Spieth again this week, and before you accuse us of laziness please remember this key fact: he’s actually got MORE chance of winning this week.
Why is that? Well, Dustin Johnson and Jon Rahm aren’t in the field for starters, while Justin Thomas will have to make do without Jimmy Johnson, the caddie that has been at his side for all his glorious moments in the past 12 months or so.
Short, tree-lined tracks are Spieth’s stock and trade – he’s a winner and a runner-up at Colonial, remember, and a brilliant showing here 12 months ago confirms the fact. After missing the cut in 2014, the 24-year-old bounced back by finishing T3 behind the rampant Thomas….sneakily ranking first for SG: Approach and second for SG: Tee to Green.
The Achilles heel of Spieth’s game – his occasionally errant driving – should really prove to be his downfall here and at Colonial, but for some reason having trees in his eye-line seems to act as a ‘straightener’. Answers on a postcard about that.
After a slow start at the Tournament of Champions, Spieth played the final 54 holes at Kapalua in -14, and only DJ went around in fewer. For that and the myriad reasons outlined above, there is no reason why the British Open champion can’t open his account for the year at one of the earliest available opportunities.
Key Stats (2017):
- SG: Approach – 1st
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 2nd
- Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 2nd
Top-Tier Pick #2:
Webb Simpson (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 70.1, GPFP: 64.08 Salary: $9,300)
If you cast your mind back to May, you may just recall the Dean & Deluca Invitational at Colonial. If you really try to tap into your sub-conscious, you may well remember Webb Simpson throwing away a handy lead to record a long overdue tour win.
Nevertheless, we followed his progress from then on and it was a good season for Simpson: he delivered six top-10 finishes.
He ended the season well (T9 at the BMW Championship, T13 at the TOUR Championship), and followed up with a couple of decent turns in the wraparound (T17 at the Safeway Open, T20 at Shriners).
The 32-year-old has made the cut in each of his last seven Sony Open starts, finishing T13 in each of his last three visits!
Key Stats (2017):
- SG: Around the Green – 14th
- SG: Approach – 21st
- SG: Tee to Green – 24th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Chez Reavie (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 70.4, GPFP: 60.88 Salary: $8,000)
We’ve written about the need to have classy, straight hitters on side at Waialae, and they don’t come much more accurate than Chez Reavie.
It has now, technically, been ten years since Reavie last won on Tour, and while he’s not a guy we necessarily consider to be championship material anyway, his scope for a top-10 or better here is clear for all to see.
Banking a T8 here 12 months ago, the 36-year-old also recorded four top-20 finishes in five starts during the wraparound season – with the aberration being T24 at the WGC HSBC Champions event in China.
That consistency sums up Reavie’s game to a tee: he’s just a fantastically-reliable ball striker, and one who thrives on shorter tracks – standing at just 5ft 9in, he simply doesn’t have the long levers to compete with the bigger boys.
Satisfaction is (almost) guaranteed when drafting Reavie on a Par 70 stretch.
Key Stats (2017):
- Approaches from 125-150 Yards – 8th
- SG: Approach – 45th
- SG: Tee to Green – 65th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Russell Knox (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 71.1, GPFP: 57.40 Salary: $7,100)
After a fairly miserable 2017 season by his standards, Russell Knox will be looking to bounce back with a bang this time around.
This might well be a decent place for him to start. Knox has a habit of playing his best golf on shorter Par 70s, and the twin combination of tree-lined fairways and the occasional wind suit the Scot right down to the ground.
He’s notched a pair of top-20s in his last three visits to Waialae, and a host of other relevant showings – a pair of top-10s at the OHL Classic, 11-2 at the RBC Heritage in his last two visits – adds further fuel to the flames.
Key Stats (2017):
- Driving Accuracy – 20th
- Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 55th
- SG: Approach – 73rd
Low-Tier Pick:
Stewart Cink (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 70.6, GPFP: 88.00 Salary: $6,800)
With eight cuts made in ten trips, Stewart Cink can be considered a reliable performer at Waialae, and a return to one of his favorite courses could not be better timed.
The folically-challenged grinder enjoyed a fine 2017 with 20 cuts made from 26 starts, ten top-25s and a trio of top-10s. He also ranked fifth for Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders; a handy insight ahead of this Par 70 assignment.
As we’ve hopefully made abundantly clear, classy ball strikers tend to have their wicked way at Waialae, and Cink – at this very best – can be added to that category.
Key Stats (2017):
- SG: Approach the Green – 4th
- Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 5th
- SG: Tee to Green – 38th
Sleeper Pick for the Sony Open in Hawaii
Austin Cook (Odds: 60/1, FPPG: 69.7, GPFP: 86.74 Salary: $7,600)
Our narrative this week has been about quality operators that have been there, done it and got the trophies to prove it.
At this point we don’t exactly know how Austin Cook’s career is going to pan out, but with his maiden PGA TOUR title already secured we can say with a bit of confidence that he is set for big things.
That victory at the RSM Classic was an eye-catching affair, and indicated that he is a straight shooter even under the fiercest of pressure.
Following up has proven tricky for the 25-year-old, and while his finish of 22nd out of 34 at the Tournament of Champions is hardly mind blowing he did rank T3 for Greens in Regulation at Kapalua.
GIR is a stat with only minimal relevance of course, but at least it shows that Cook is creating birdie opportunities from tee to green.
Key Stats (2018):
- Birdie or Better Percentage – 37th
- SG: Around-the-Green – 45th
- SG: Tee to Green – 57th
Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Sony Open in Hawaii
Jimmy Walker (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 71.1, GPFP: 18.80 Salary: $7,200)
A bit of a risky pick this, given Jimmy Walker’s health problems, but he’s had plenty of time off and should hopefully be in high spirits ahead of a trip to a course he holds so dear.
Walker is a two-time Sony Open champion, with T4 and T14 also at Waialae alongside other solid showings, and so life in Hawaii clearly suits the 38-year-old.
He has been writing very positively about his health on social media, and how about these words from swing coach Butch Harmon: “He’s healthy again and we had some really good sessions. It’s probably the best I’ve ever seen him swing it. He’s done some great work and he’s ready to go.”
Ignore the stats, this could be the ‘old’ Jimmy Walker we see this week.
Key Stats (2017):
- SG: Approach: 19th
- Approaches from 100-125 yards: 66th
- Proximity to Hole: 77th
This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
This Week’s Sample Lineup
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2017-2018)
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