Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2021 Houston Open
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the Houston Open
Houston Open Fantasy Preview
There’s that old saying that if the cap fits, wear it. But for Viktor Hovland, we might reformat that to ‘if the golf course fits, beat it.’
El Camaleon is set-up like a charm for the young Norwegian ace, and his excellent wind-beating game – aided by his preference for slow and grainy greens – means that this stretch in Playa del Carmen should be his playground.
And boy, is Hovland making it count.
He has become that rarest of beasts on the PGA TOUR – the back-to-back event winner – after doubling up his efforts in 2020 with victory in last week’s edition of the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba.
It was the comfiest of title defenses for Hovland, who incredibly snapped his driver on the range earlier in the week such was his frustration. But his play throughout the 72 holes showcased his normal zen-like calm, and in the end he finished four shots clear of closest challenger Carlos Ortiz.
Ironically, Ortiz will have his own shot at defending a PGA TOUR title this week as he looks to retain his Houston Open crown at Memorial Park in the Texan city.
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
It’s no overstatement to say that our fantasy picks have been on fire so far this season! With Hovland’s win last week, we have now successfully picked the winner four times in the last six events.
Picking the defending champ is always a risky move, but the doubters were quickly silenced when Hovland did just that, and defended his Mayakoba title.
Not only did Viktor help us cash in, but Carlos Ortiz’s solo second raked in an additional whopping 127 Fantasy Points. Together the two combined for over 260 fantasy points at Mayakoba.
Houston Open Field
Brooks Koepka had a hand in re-designing Memorial Park back in 2019, and that knowledge swept him to a T5 finish a year ago.
He’ll be looking to improve upon his recent form at a venue he knows well, where he will be joined by two-time PGA TOUR victors Sam Burns, Tony Finau and Sungjae Im, alongside a youthful triumvirate of Scottie Scheffler, Cameron Smith and Matt Wolff.
The slightly older gents are well represented by Adam Scott and Patrick Reed, although the full age spectrum will be represented by local sponsor exemptions Cameron Sisk – still a teenage amateur, and Shawn Stefani, who earned his tour card pretty much a decade ago.
This Week’s Course Preview
Last year’s edition of the Houston Open was the first time that Memorial Park had hosted a PGA TOUR event in 60 years, and we got a good glimpse at the layout which Koepka and Tom Doak had worked tirelessly on to improve.
Playing at a long 7,412 yards for its Par 70, there’s a huge amount of real estate here with expansive fairways and large, albeit complex, greens.
There’s not a huge amount to write about off the tee, with the wide landing zones ensuring even the wildest of drivers have a chance of finding the short stuff, and even if they don’t there’s still ample opportunities to scramble to the greens in good time.
The beauty of Memorial Park is in those Bermuda putting surfaces, which do run at a decent pace and feature some shaved edges and unusual contours – meaning that plenty of GIR will be missed.
And so a handy short game will be required to tame this layout, and the only consolation to those involved is that the weather forecast is pretty benign for what can be a windy part of the United States.
Weather Forecast for Houston, TX
It’s your typical Houston week of weather in November, with sunny spells and warm-enough temperatures to keep the players entertained.
Indeed, the four days of action all look to be wholly interchangeable – sunshine and minimal chance of rain backed by temperatures ranging from 66-75˚F.
As for the wind, the early predictions are subject to change as always, but right now the breeze is set to peak at about 10mph – pretty tame for this part of the world.
Last Year’s Results from the Houston Open
While Abraham Ancer subsequently entered the winners’ circle, Carlos Ortiz was the first Mexican in 42 years to prevail in a PGA TOUR event at last year’s Houston Open.
And he did so in pretty impressive fashion, given that as he afforded himself a look at the on-course leaderboard he would have seen the names Johnson. D, Matsuyama. H and Koepka. B in close proximity.
But Ortiz showed sizable cajones to ward off their challenge, even making a birdie at the last to open up a two-shot cushion over DJ and Matsuyama.
The wily old veteran Brandt Snedeker held the first-round lead before drifting away, while Sam Burns also looked well-positioned after opening 68-65-68 but he couldn’t capitalize.
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Houston Open this Week
Don’t forget, you’ve only got the Houston Open and next week’s RSM Classic left as the ‘proper’ DFS contests of 2021. So, let’s make hay while the sun shines in Texas, shall we?
- PGA $80k Up-and-Down: For those with a healthy bankroll to play with, this contest charges $55 per turn but offers plenty of upside – it’s multi-entry, for starters, and pays a top prize of $20k. The top 10 players in this 1652-player field bank $600.
- PGA $100k Drive the Green: From our picks later in this preview, combined with our sleeper report, you’ll note that there are plenty of interesting players to choose from this week. So, multi-entry contests are the way forward, and even the most conservative bankrolls will have plenty of ammunition at their disposal in this $5 game that pays the winner a cool $25k.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Houston Open
While we only have one year’s worth of knowledge to call upon, we learned some pretty useful lessons from the inaugural showing at Memorial Park.
With Johnson and Koepka in the top-five, you know this is a ‘bombs away’ style track, and Ortiz pretty much confirmed it – he averaged 312 yards off the tee and ranked fifth for SG: Around-the-Green, gaining 20% GIR on his Driving Accuracy of 50%.
Which is a pretty roundabout way of saying that you need to hit it long off the tee, and the actual final resting place of your ball is of little consequence.
Our picks will need to putt well on slick Bermuda greens mind you, and we are mindful that plenty of greens will be missed – either via a wild approach or an inability to hold the fast, sloping surfaces.
So quality around the greens – as showcased by Ortiz 12 months ago – is very much a priority.
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Houston Open
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Houston Open
Top Tier Pick #1:
Scottie Scheffler (Odds: 18/1, FPPG: 68.0, GPFP: 68.40 Salary: $10,900)
There is a sense of unease in dedicating such a large slab of our salary cap to a player that remains a PGA TOUR maiden, but Memorial Park sets up pretty nicely for Scottie Scheffler and so we have to give him a chance.
The Texan has, unsurprisingly, looked at home on fast Bermuda greens to this point in his career, and to that end a return to the Lone Star State should not inconvenience him a great deal.
Long off the peg, Scheffler was much improved with his irons at Mayakoba last time out, where he hit a really healthy 81.9% of GIR – the best in the field.
And for a player with a typically excellent short game, the maiden has all of the tools of the trade to emulate Ortiz in ending his lengthy PGA TOUR title drought this week.
Key Stats:
- Greens in Regulation – 5th
- Birdie Average – 7th
- SG: Putting – 24th
Top Tier Pick #2:
Aaron Wise (Odds: 33/1, FPPG: 108.8, GPFP: 87.00 Salary: $9,200)
Whether it’s the difference-maker that sweeps him to a second PGA TOUR title remains to been, but the improved confidence Aaron Wise has had from deploying a long putter is clear for all to see.
Top 10s at the CJ Cup and Shriners were followed by T15 at Mayakoba, and so the 25-year-old is evidently trending in the right direction ahead of a trip to a layout where he finished T11 last term.
Memorial Park is set up beautifully for him. Long off the tee but not exactly accurate, Wise can send it off the peg and then let his natural scrambling game take over – he’s also excellent around the greens, too.
The omens are all pretty positive for an excellent week for Wise.
Key Stats:
- SG: Around-the-Green – 9th
- Scoring Average – 12th
- Scrambling – 32nd
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Harold Varner III (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 82.0, GPFP: 65.60 Salary: $7,700)
If you had to identify a weakness in Harold Varner III’s game, you would have to say that it’s his accuracy off the tee – layouts like Memorial Park should signify an upturn in his chances of succeeding.
In truth, HVIII has been in decent order this season with finishes of T11 at the Sanderson Farms and T16 at the Fortinet Championship, and we’re happy to ignore the missed cut at Mayakoba – the sticky Paspalum greens there are an alien world for some.
For context, Varner ranks 34th for SG: Tee-to-Green so far this term and 48th for SG: Putting, so all of the tools are in place and he has the length too that will help to compile an excellent score at Memorial Park.
Key Stats:
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 34th
- SG: Putting – 48th
- Driving Distance – 59th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Taylor Pendrith (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 77.2, GPFP: 61.78 Salary: $7,200)
A missed cut at Mayakoba rather ended Taylor Pendrith’s excellent start to life as a PGA TOUR pro, but as already mentioned that is a golf course in another country whose greens play like they’re from another planet.
Back to the run-of-the-mill, we’re expecting a return to the sort of form that swept Pendrith to the top-five at the Bermuda Championship – an event he might have won but for a closing 76.
Spending a lot of his time in Florida these days, the Canadian is clearly at home on Bermuda greens, and that skill will be complemented by his prodigious length and reliable short game at Memorial Park.
Key Stats:
- Driving Distance – 20th
- SG: Putting – 54th
- SG: Around-the-Green – 67th
Low-Tier Pick:
Keith Mitchell (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 69.8, GPFP: 55.80 Salary: $7,000)
The Bermuda bully is back on his favored surface, and that should indicate a marked improvement in fortunes.
In truth, Keith Mitchell was excellent on Bentgrass at the CJ Cup (T3) and not too shabby on the Paspalum of Mayakoba – three rounds in the 60s there were indicative of a player confident in his swing.
But we know he prefers Bermuda greens, and we know also that he’s at his best when there’s plenty of room off the tee – as Memorial Park provides. An improved season so far around the greens suggest Mitchell has plenty to be cheerful about heading to the Lone Star State.
Key Stats:
- Birdie Average – 13th
- Total Driving – 17th
- SG: Around-the-Green – 35th
Sleeper Pick for the Houston Open
Jason Day (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 93.0, GPFP: 74.40 Salary: $7,400)
It’s a bit of a left-field pick admittedly, but these are the sorts of golf courses that Jason Day would lap up at the peak of his powers.
The fact that the Australian is now priced at 100/1 by the sportsbooks in a so-so field is testament to how far his stock has fallen, and a lack of activity lately hardly whets the appetite either.
There is a major element of crossing our fingers and hoping for the best here, but if Day brings anything like his A or B game then he is not a throwaway pick in this field or any other at such a derisory salary.
Key Stats:
- Birdie Average – 16th
- Total Driving – 90th
- SG: Putting – 110th
Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Houston Open
Trey Mullinax (Odds: 300/1, FPPG: 61.8, GPFP: 49.41 Salary: $6,200)
While his PGA TOUR career has been stop-start to say the least, Trey Mullinax has a bit of spark about him that makes him an interesting customer when the conditions suit.
They did when he as solo second in the Korn Ferry Tour Championship, and they did when T4 at the Sanderson Farms, and we hope they are once more at a track where he will have room to spray his driver all over the real estate.
The Alabaman should enjoy the trip south, and has shown enough this season to suggest he is a golfer re-born. The aforementioned finish at the Sanderson Farms was backed by rounds of 65 and 66 at Shriners, and even his two missed cuts have come at under-par scores.
Key Stats:
- Driving Distance – 12th
- SG: Putting – 33rd
- Birdie Average – 48th
This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2021-2022)
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