Welcome everyone to the Wednesday Night Tilt! My name is Dalton and I LOVE gambling.
Its Wednesday night, you just paid out your bookie, and you’re looking to make some picks because your wallet is empty and you know this is your week. Today is your day and I’m here to help.
My goal here is to provide you with the best information to make your weekly picks for the PGA Tour. Ill touch on lines i like in outright winners, top 5s, 10s, tournament long match-ups, and daily match-ups.
My analysis is not solely based on stats. Golf is much more than stats. Stats are built into the Vegas line and I promise there is no stat that they haven’t considered. So lets get started.
The course is going to require just an all around solid player. The fairways and greens are huge so its going to be whoever is dialed in with the irons and can get hot with the putter. Most Importantly though is this tournament is in the Bahamas and gets treated like a vacation by many of the guys.
The favorite to win is Justin Rose at 6.5: 1. Considering there is only 18 people in the field and Rose is the hottest player on the planet right now, Id sprinkle a little bit on this line. Oh and also he lives in the Bahamas so hes sleeping in his own bed. But you’re not here for a bet on the favorite take. Realistically you just need to know who can actually win the tournament and who can’t. Put some money on a few of them you like and its basically free money.
Justin Thomas (8:1): His resume speaks for itself. He finished last season consistently in the top 15, but whats most important is the fire that he plays with. During a tournament like this where most of the guys are basically on vacation, he’s going to be focused. Hand chosen by Tiger to play with him you have to know that there is going to be some great information share going on. Book it.
Rickie Fowler (8.5:1): He’s finished top 3 in all of his appearances at Albany. Plus he can’t win a serious tournament so why not stack up the wins at the Hit and Giggle.
Bryson DeChambau (9.5:1): He’s on FIRE. Ride the wave here and sprinkle just a little bit because you do not want to miss out on another Bryson win.
Patrick Cantlay (18:1): He’s donating $500 to the California Strong Group for every birdie he makes during the tournament. . Also hes a great young player. Not great with the flat stick but its a great story so instead of betting on his line maybe take that cash and donate to California wild fire relief.
I know you’re thinking what about DJ, Tiger, Reed, etc well here’s a quick hitter of why they wont win:
Reed is flying in from Tokyo off a 40+ finish so he’s here to relax. DJ has Paulina in the Bahamas so he’s going to be busy. Tiger, as we saw in “The Match” isn’t on his game right now. Jason Day has these great putting stats going around how he has been pretty much automatic, but he’s been miserable on SG approach-the-green (129th on tour last year). Those putting stats do not tell the whole story. Also Finau would be a favorite of mine if he wasn’t working through a swing change right now.
FIRST ROUND MATCH-UPS:
Justin Thomas (-110) vs Tiger: We all saw Tigers performance last week. Good thing that thing ended up being free.
Rose (-1/2 strokes) @ (-110) vs Stenson: Lay the half stroke here. Gets the odds down a bit for an automatic win vs Stenson who can’t putt to save his life.
Bubba (+110) vs Reed: As i said Reed is off a bad finish and a long flight. He’s here to relax after a long season. They have a similar first round scoring average so Bubba gets the edge.
TOURNAMENT LONG MATCH-UPS:
Rose (EV) vs DJ: its hard to not bet the best player in the world right now as an underdog.
Bryson (EV) vs Tiger: Tiger’s odds will stay low as long as i can see into the future because everyone loves to bet him. Bryson is playing way too well right now to lose to Tiger the way we saw him play.
Woodland (-115) vs Noren: Gary Woodland is streaking right now as well. BUT, be wary as he is testing some new irons this week.
Look for updates every night of the tournament as the lines for the next day pairings come out!
That’s all I have this week. Good luck to everyone out there except the bookies. They Stink.
Cover Image via Instagram