GOLFICITY BETS: The US Open 2020 Gambling Guide

The US Open 2020 Tournament Preview

It’s finally time for another Major, and while the PGA Championship – and, to a lesser extent, the TOUR Championship – helped to sate the appetite for a while, there’s nothing quite like the U.S. Open to get the motor running.

It will be a week where it’s more fun to watch than compete, given that Winged Foot is one of the most devilish tests of all-round golf anywhere to be found.

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Those with long memories may just recall Geoff Ogilvy winning the U.S. Open here in 2006 with a score of +5, which remains one of the highest major-winning tallies in history. And while we’re expecting a lower mark than that this week given that golf has moved on a lot in the past 14 years, a score of around level par might just be enough to get into the thick end of proceedings.

It’s simple then – just don’t make any mistakes and you’ll be a major champion! If only it was that easy….

The US Open 2020 Course Preview

To be honest, this is a golf course of three thirds – the opening stretch of four holes is far from a walk in the park, the middle third serves up some birdie opportunities (making hay here will be key) and the closing four or five holes are among the toughest around.

Winged Foot is long….really long, actually, at 7,500 yards for its Par 70, and the relentless nature of constantly hitting driver could take its toll on many. Also, a number of the holes are doglegged, and as if to compound the misery there is a need to find specific angles into some of these greens, which are protected by big trees and deep sand. Tee game will be crucial for our U.S. Open champion.

But think about approaching into Poa Annua greens that are sloping, fast and feature horrible false fronts and backs. Not only will you need to make GIR, you will need to make the right kind of GIR as finding the wrong part of the green will more often than not leave a nasty two-putt for par.

And on that note….there’s only a small handful of players in the field who you really fancy to two-putt from 60-ft away on a downslope, and those will be the guys to have on-side this week.

Hopefully that has whetted your appetite nicely!

The US Open 2020 Outright Winner

Quality off the tee and classy on the greens; if that’s the recipe for success at Winged Foot then Jon Rahm immediately springs to mind.

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The Spaniard is someone who can comfortably shape the ball both ways off the tee, and he actually seems to play better the harder the course is – he’s a winner of the Memorial Tournament and the BMW Championship in the past couple of months after all.

With eleven wins worldwide, Rahm is already a major player at the age of 25, and now he needs a major title to go with the tag.

The US Open 2020 Top 5 Finish Pick

One of the interesting things that reporters on the ground at Winged Foot have reported is that some of the fairways actually pinch tighter the further you hit the ball.

That’s not to suggest that length isn’t an advantage – that’s not the case, but actually somebody who can find fairways AND is comfortable approaching these greens from 175-200 yards cannot be discounted completely.

And it’s the kind of grind that Webb Simpson enjoys anyway; he’s already a U.S. Open champion, and a guy who ranked first on Tour in 2019-20 for Bogey Avoidance and Par 4 Scoring Average can battle his way into contention even without added power.

The difference maker now is that Simpson has found his feet on the greens, and clearly that’s a huge edge at a course where sinking a few and saving par will be essential.

The US Open 2020 Top 10 Finish Pick

If you’re betting on Paul Casey to win majors then good luck with that, however the Englishman has a long history of top-10s in the biggest events and he should enjoy the challenge that Winged Foot presents.

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He is super consistent – just two cuts missed in 2019-20 – and that’s down to his relentless GIR hitting. At Winged Foot, that simplicity will be worth plenty.

You sense that Casey really comes into his own on difficult courses – he seems the kind of personality that thrives on it. His natural right-to-left shot shape should keep him in good order, too.

The US Open 2020 Top 20 Finish Pick

It won’t get your engine running, but safe picks are the way forward at Winged Foot, and they don’t come much safer right now than a Harris English top-20 finish.

If you can keep the ball in play off the tee then you tend to make fewer mistakes, and that’s one of the reasons for English’s uptick – ranking 34th for Total Driving has helped him to a catalog of top-25s in the past year.

You want even more basic? He ranked tenth on Tour for Par 4 Scoring Average in the 2019-20 season too.

The US Open 2020 Match-up to Watch

You sense that there’s a fair case to be made for many at the top of the betting market this week, so match-ups involving DJ, Rahm and Rory should be swerved.

There are head-to-heads featuring Bryson (more details below) and, sorry Big Cat fans, this is not the week for Tiger Woods to thrive. The sheer physicality of the test – let alone his lack of form – are enough to take him on.

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Adam Scott will love this challenge, as will Paul Casey, and while the odds are available take Patrick Reed over Tiger without delay – Captain America has an outstanding record on the east coast, and his short game will help him get out of trouble on this most demanding of layouts.

Who to Fade this Week

You wonder if Bryson DeChambeau is spending too much time in the gym and not enough working on his game.

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A series of poor showings at complex golf courses suggests that Bryson 2.0 has gone too far in his effort to become the PGA TOUR’s Popeye, and at Winged Foot that trend will take some reversing.

Less weights, more iron play practice, Bryson.

Cover Image via Instagram